FORESIGHT OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NATIONAL TOURISM SYSTEM
UDC 338.48.071.2
Anatolii MAZARAKI,
Doctor of Economics, Professor, Rector of Kyiv National University of Trade and Economics
Marharyta BOIKO,
Doctor of Economics, Professor, Head of the Hospitality Business Department of
Kyiv National University of Trade and Economics
Alla OKHRIMENKO,
PhD in Economics, Associate Professor of the Hospitality Business Department of
Kyiv National University of Trade and Economics
FORESIGHT OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NATIONAL TOURISM SYSTEM
Background. In today’s complex reality, the key factor of success and competitive advantage in the globalized world is the long-term forecasting of trends and scenarios of development namely the foresight research that provides an opportunity to predict the future taking into account fundamentally new content, forms and structures of the trends of socio-economic development. Aggravation of competition in the market of tourist services, restriction of state financing of projects in the field of tourism, increase of the importance of technological competence in the development of components of the national tourism system require extrapolation of foresight in the field of scientific methods of its research.
Analysis of recent research and publications. Analyzing the works of scientists on the essence of foresight as an innovative method of scientific research, it has been established that its use in studies of the national tourism system is fragmentary and requires more in-depth and systematic research.
The aim of the article is to define the maintstream of the development of the national tourism system based on the foresight of global changes that affect the development of tourist systems.
Materials and methods. In the course of the research a set of scientific methods and approaches was used: systematic, structural and functional, analysis and synthesis, comparison, forecasting.
Results. The theoretical principles and methodical aspects of the use of the foresight of the development of the national tourism system (NTS) with the purpose of determining the transformation dominant in the global environment have been studied. The influence of technological trends on the national tourism system has been analyzed. One of the important markers of development of the NTS of Ukraine, namely volumes of serviced foreign citizens, has been forecasted. The emphasis is placed on the fact, that forecasting the development of a national tourism system, the economic interests of key agents and the interaction between them should be taken into account. The potential of NTS foresight has been presented, the idea of which is based, on the one hand, on the innovative possibilities of this methodology, and on the other hand, on the features of the NTS and the need of various aspects of its research.
Conclusion. In order domestic business to enter the foreign market of tourist offers, it is necessary to focus on key directions of the global trends mainstream. In view of this, the use of foresight becomes crucial for determining the future prospects for the development of the national tourism system by identifying the potential impact of innovation factors, designing the appropriate scenario conditions, identifying global long-term trends and the timeframe for their implementation, which will strengthen the position of the national tourism system of Ukraine, its image and strategic stability in the international market.
Keywords: tourism, national tourism system, foresight, technological trends in tourism, blockchain in tourism, forecasting
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Anatolii MAZARAKI,
Doctor of Economics, Professor, Rector of Kyiv National University of Trade and Economics
Marharyta BOIKO,
Doctor of Economics, Professor, Head of the Hospitality Business Department of
Kyiv National University of Trade and Economics
Alla OKHRIMENKO,
PhD in Economics, Associate Professor of the Hospitality Business Department of
Kyiv National University of Trade and Economics
FORESIGHT OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NATIONAL TOURISM SYSTEM
Background. In today’s complex reality, the key factor of success and competitive advantage in the globalized world is the long-term forecasting of trends and scenarios of development namely the foresight research that provides an opportunity to predict the future taking into account fundamentally new content, forms and structures of the trends of socio-economic development. Aggravation of competition in the market of tourist services, restriction of state financing of projects in the field of tourism, increase of the importance of technological competence in the development of components of the national tourism system require extrapolation of foresight in the field of scientific methods of its research.
Analysis of recent research and publications. Analyzing the works of scientists on the essence of foresight as an innovative method of scientific research, it has been established that its use in studies of the national tourism system is fragmentary and requires more in-depth and systematic research.
The aim of the article is to define the maintstream of the development of the national tourism system based on the foresight of global changes that affect the development of tourist systems.
Materials and methods. In the course of the research a set of scientific methods and approaches was used: systematic, structural and functional, analysis and synthesis, comparison, forecasting.
Results. The theoretical principles and methodical aspects of the use of the foresight of the development of the national tourism system (NTS) with the purpose of determining the transformation dominant in the global environment have been studied. The influence of technological trends on the national tourism system has been analyzed. One of the important markers of development of the NTS of Ukraine, namely volumes of serviced foreign citizens, has been forecasted. The emphasis is placed on the fact, that forecasting the development of a national tourism system, the economic interests of key agents and the interaction between them should be taken into account. The potential of NTS foresight has been presented, the idea of which is based, on the one hand, on the innovative possibilities of this methodology, and on the other hand, on the features of the NTS and the need of various aspects of its research.
Conclusion. In order domestic business to enter the foreign market of tourist offers, it is necessary to focus on key directions of the global trends mainstream. In view of this, the use of foresight becomes crucial for determining the future prospects for the development of the national tourism system by identifying the potential impact of innovation factors, designing the appropriate scenario conditions, identifying global long-term trends and the timeframe for their implementation, which will strengthen the position of the national tourism system of Ukraine, its image and strategic stability in the international market.
Keywords: tourism, national tourism system, foresight, technological trends in tourism, blockchain in tourism, forecasting
FREE FULL TEXT (PDF)