Doctor of Economics, Associate Professor of the Banking Department of Kyiv National University of Trade and Economics
INTEREST RATE POLICY OF THE CENTRAL BANK
Background.The key points of the interest rate policy of the Central bank in case of Ukraine and Poland are discussed. Coherence of discount rate, refinance rate of Central bank to macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine and Poland is analyzed. The main types of the Central bank’s interest rate policy and its cognitive correlation between the commercial banks’ interest rate policy are identified.
Analysis of recent research and publications.A number of domestic works are devoted to the study of interest policy problem of both central and commercial banks: S.M. Lobozinskaya, S.V. Babich, N.S. Kukharuk, G.G. Chmeruk and foreign ones: Sirkka Hämäläinen, Grégory Claeys and Maria Demertzis, as well as official publications by the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank. However, not all aspects of interest policy in them are highlighted enough.
The purpose of the article is to determine the main rules for the formation of interest policy and to provide recommendations on the construction of an optimal interest rate policy of the central bank, depending on the situation in economy, banking system and the main objectives of the central bank’s activities in a long run.
Materials and methods.The publication is based on the legislation of Ukraine, normative documents of the National Bank of Ukraine, foreign publications, in particular materials of the National Bank of Poland. The used statistical materials are posted on the website of the National Bank of Ukraine, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, and other open sources. Methods of the correlation – regression analysis, historical, logical approaches, methods of comparisons and graphical analysis are used in this work.
Results.In different official documents the definition of the essence of the interest policy of the National Bank of Ukraine differs considerably, and the definition given in the Basic Principles can be interpreted in general terms ambiguously. Therefore, there is an expedient to study this issue more deeply, based on the statistical data on the interest policies of central banks of different countries, in particular, Ukraine and Poland.
From the analysis of inflation, FX rate, interest rate trends it is possible to draw a number of conclusions. Firstly, the interest rate policy of the NBU varied over the different periods from the policy of "cheap" to the policy of "expensive" money and was not closely related to indicators of inflation and devaluation. Secondly, inflation was closely linked to the rate of devaluation and only for exchange rate stability provided a moderate inflation rate.
According to the changes in the dynamics of interest rates, it is possible to distinguish three main forms of interest rate policy of the National Bank of Ukraine in the period under consideration. "Moderate" when the refinancing rate was approximately midway between the rates of interest and the rates for hryvnia resources. This is January 2005 – October 2009 and 2011. The policy of "cheap" money when the refinancing rate was at or below the rates of hryvnia deposits of banks. This is November 2009 – September 2010, 2012–2013 (except for individual periods). The policy of "expensive" money, when the refinancing rate was prevailing the rates of banking loans or was at about the same level. Conducted in the "acute phase" from September 2014 to April 2016.
Conclusion. The conducted analysis showed a weak correlation interface between the trends of discount rate and basic macroeconomic indicators. It testifies the necessity of flexible correction of percent politics both by central and commercial banks in accordance with economic terms and purposes of activity.
The decline of rate on certificates of deposit of NBU would diminish it’s percent expenses and simultaneously stimulate commercial banks lending to the economy and reducing rates on the current accounts of clients, inducing them to place money in more profitable time deposits.
Keywords:discount rate, rate of refinance, course of exchange, consumer price index, interest rate policy, structure of interest rate.
FREE FULL TEXT (PDF)