UNCERTAINTY CONCEPT IN ECONOMIC SCIENCE
UDC 330.1:165.412
KORCHEVAYA Victoriia,
Postgraduate Student at the Department of Economic Theory and History of Economic Science Odessa I.I. Mechnikov National University
UNCERTAINTY CONCEPT IN ECONOMIC SCIENCE
Background. The main discussion of the article is the concept of uncertainty of economic development. It caused the necessity of analyzing the concept of "uncertainty" and its difference from concepts "risk" and "ambiguity". The difference in the views on the uncertainty nature leads to emergence of disputes about its impact to the economic reality and methods of fighting with its negative consequences. In the article the comparative characteristic of different views on the understanding of the concept "uncertainty" was conducted, the classifications of its types were analyzed and the recommendations concerning common vector of understanding uncertainty of economic development as a modern economic theory problem were given.
Recent researches and publications analysis. The base of modern uncertainty theory in economics was formed by John Keynes, who also made the definition of uncertainty conception. Mises L. and Knight F. analyzed uncertainty as an epistemological concept and divided it into risk and fundamental uncertainty. Foreign scientists Funtowicz S., Ravetz J., Riesch H. proposed the classification of uncertainty types. Among the Russian scientists the most significant contributions were made by Rozmayinskyy I., Olsevich Yu. and Cherkasov V. They systematized the uncertainty theory in post-keynesian school and studied the problem in the context of the global financial crisis. The problem of economic uncertainty is also researched by Ukrainian scientists Voskresens'ka O., Savchuk O. Practical part of uncertainty impact to economic development is analyzed by national economists Grabchuk O. and Jakos' І.
The aim of the article is disclosing the concept of "uncertainty" of economic development, solving the conflict between the main directions of economic theory schools and further developing and improving the methodological framework policy instruments.
Materials and methods. Scientific works (16 sources of materials research) have been used in the research. The following methods have been used: method of comparative analysis – to compare different views on the nature of the category of "uncertainty" and how to eliminate it, compare approaches to the classification of types of economic uncertainty; abstraction – to develop two scenarios of civil behavior in times of economic uncertainty; historical – to study opinions on the concept of "uncertainty" and "risk", understand their role in economic theory.
Results. Studying different views on the definition of economic uncertainty from the Keynes to the modern scientists helped us to systematize this conception and to divide uncertainty in its fundamental sense from the risk. We also showed the relation of uncertainty and such conceptions as ergodicity and non ergodicity. In practical world uncertainty can impact to policy decisions, what is the actual economic theory problem.
Conclusion. Uncertainty increases the destabilization of economic processes in amounts proportional to its growth. Today we have two political measures of reaction to the economic uncertainty: the position of ignoring and the position of prediction, but these two ways relate with social losses. The main problem of uncertainty in economics is no answer to the question if the capitalistic market system can work without government for providing sustained economic growth.
Keywords: uncertainty, ergodicity, economic policy, risk, ambiguity.
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KORCHEVAYA Victoriia,
Postgraduate Student at the Department of Economic Theory and History of Economic Science Odessa I.I. Mechnikov National University
UNCERTAINTY CONCEPT IN ECONOMIC SCIENCE
Background. The main discussion of the article is the concept of uncertainty of economic development. It caused the necessity of analyzing the concept of "uncertainty" and its difference from concepts "risk" and "ambiguity". The difference in the views on the uncertainty nature leads to emergence of disputes about its impact to the economic reality and methods of fighting with its negative consequences. In the article the comparative characteristic of different views on the understanding of the concept "uncertainty" was conducted, the classifications of its types were analyzed and the recommendations concerning common vector of understanding uncertainty of economic development as a modern economic theory problem were given.
Recent researches and publications analysis. The base of modern uncertainty theory in economics was formed by John Keynes, who also made the definition of uncertainty conception. Mises L. and Knight F. analyzed uncertainty as an epistemological concept and divided it into risk and fundamental uncertainty. Foreign scientists Funtowicz S., Ravetz J., Riesch H. proposed the classification of uncertainty types. Among the Russian scientists the most significant contributions were made by Rozmayinskyy I., Olsevich Yu. and Cherkasov V. They systematized the uncertainty theory in post-keynesian school and studied the problem in the context of the global financial crisis. The problem of economic uncertainty is also researched by Ukrainian scientists Voskresens'ka O., Savchuk O. Practical part of uncertainty impact to economic development is analyzed by national economists Grabchuk O. and Jakos' І.
The aim of the article is disclosing the concept of "uncertainty" of economic development, solving the conflict between the main directions of economic theory schools and further developing and improving the methodological framework policy instruments.
Materials and methods. Scientific works (16 sources of materials research) have been used in the research. The following methods have been used: method of comparative analysis – to compare different views on the nature of the category of "uncertainty" and how to eliminate it, compare approaches to the classification of types of economic uncertainty; abstraction – to develop two scenarios of civil behavior in times of economic uncertainty; historical – to study opinions on the concept of "uncertainty" and "risk", understand their role in economic theory.
Results. Studying different views on the definition of economic uncertainty from the Keynes to the modern scientists helped us to systematize this conception and to divide uncertainty in its fundamental sense from the risk. We also showed the relation of uncertainty and such conceptions as ergodicity and non ergodicity. In practical world uncertainty can impact to policy decisions, what is the actual economic theory problem.
Conclusion. Uncertainty increases the destabilization of economic processes in amounts proportional to its growth. Today we have two political measures of reaction to the economic uncertainty: the position of ignoring and the position of prediction, but these two ways relate with social losses. The main problem of uncertainty in economics is no answer to the question if the capitalistic market system can work without government for providing sustained economic growth.
Keywords: uncertainty, ergodicity, economic policy, risk, ambiguity.
FREE FULL TEXT (PDF)